Construction activity rises in Alberta to 2035, as non-residential growth offsets moderating residential demands
OTTAWA, Ontario, July 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --
Construction activity in Alberta is expected to rise through to 2035, as sustained growth in non-residential construction activity combines with elevated, although moderating, levels of residential construction.
BuildForce Canada today released its Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward highlight reports for the residential and non-residential construction sectors in Alberta, covering the forecast period from 2026 to 2035. Funded in part by the Government of Canada's Sectoral Workforce Solutions Program, the outlook calls for sustained growth in demand for both engineering construction and industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) building projects, alongside elevated levels of residential construction that adjust from early-period peaks.
Residential construction investment has been rising notably since 2023, driven by strong growth in new-housing construction. Investment is forecast to reach a peak in 2026 before receding in the near term as declining demand for new housing, driven by reductions in population growth, outweighs modest growth in residential renovation activity. Further contractions in housing starts are projected into the early 2030s, before returning to growth through to the end of the forecast period, while renovation-related demands continue to rise.
Across the forecast period, residential construction employment is projected to decline by 16% compared to 2025 levels by 2035, with losses exclusive to the new-housing component.
In contrast, non-residential construction investment is expected to rise almost continuously across the decade, with both engineering construction and ICI buildings construction contributing to growth.
Engineering construction activity is expected to remain elevated into the medium term, driven by investments in oil and gas, utilities, and transportation infrastructure, including major light rail transit projects and pipeline developments. Key projects such as light rail transit in Calgary and Edmonton and the Yellowhead Mainline Natural Gas Pipeline sustain investment into 2029. Although activity moderates into 2031 with project completions, a renewed growth period follows.
Investment in ICI buildings construction is projected to increase steadily across the forecast period. Growth in commercial construction is expected to be driven by population increases and major projects such as the Scotia Place Calgary Arena and Calgary Arts Commons. Institutional construction activity is supported by healthcare and education investments, including the Red Deer Regional Hospital expansion and the School Construction Accelerator Program. Industrial construction is expected to fluctuate in line with the timing of major manufacturing projects.
By 2035, non-residential construction employment is projected to rise by 15% compared to 2025 levels, with employment relating to ICI buildings construction increasing by 31% and engineering construction employment rising by 10%. Non-residential maintenance employment is also expected to increase modestly over the forecast period.
“Alberta’s construction outlook continues to be driven by strong levels of non-residential construction growth and elevated levels of non-residential maintenance activity,” says Irwin Bess, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “Conversely, the decline in residential activity should be viewed in context: this is a moderation from peak levels rather than a significant contraction.”
Construction growth across the forecast period is expected to require the provincial labour force to add 48,800 workers by 2035. That figure is driven principally by the projected retirement of 43,700 workers, or 21% of the construction 2025 labour force. The projected recruiting of 43,500 first-time new entrants from the local population may lead to a shortfall of as many as 5,300 construction workers by the end of the decade.
(Note that discrete analyses of the residential and non-residential labour force trends are available in their respective reports.)
“Alberta continues to benefit from having one of the youngest provincial demographics in the country,” says Terry Parker, Executive Director of the Building Trades of Alberta. “We are now seeing the number of new entrants coming into the construction sector almost equal the number exiting due to retirement, which is an encouraging trend.”
Keeping pace with demand will require a combination of strategies, including maintaining local recruitment and training efforts, particularly among groups traditionally under-represented in the construction labour force, the hiring of workers from other industries with the required skill sets, and the recruitment of immigrants to Canada with skilled trades training or construction experience.
New apprenticeship registrations in Alberta’s largest construction programs reached a record high in 2024, surpassing 18,000 and reflecting strong growth across key trades such as construction electrician, steamfitter/pipefitter, and plumber. Although completions remain below longer-term averages, they are expected to rise as recent cohorts progress through the system.
In 2025, there were approximately 35,970 women employed in Alberta’s construction industry. Of them, 42% worked on site, directly on construction projects. As a share of the 196,700 tradespeople employed in Alberta’s construction industry, however, women accounted for 8% of the 2025 workforce.
The Indigenous population is the fastest growing population in Canada and therefore presents recruitment opportunities. In 2025, Indigenous Peoples represented 5.2% of the provincial labour force and 6.5% of the construction labour force. Both figures are above the national averages. As the Indigenous population continues to grow, the sector must continue its recruitment efforts and invest in initiatives that foster long-term retention.
The construction industry is also committed to the recruitment of newcomers to Canada. Based on historical settlement patterns, the province is expected to welcome more than 512,300 new immigrants between 2026 and 2035, making these individuals, if successfully recruited, a key and growing part of the industry’s future labour force.
Increasing the participation rate of women, Indigenous Peoples, and new Canadians could help Alberta’s construction industry address its future labour force needs.
BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to support the labour market development needs of the construction and maintenance industry. As part of these activities, BuildForce works with key industry stakeholders, including contractors, proponents of construction, labour providers, governments, and training providers, to identify both demand and supply trends that will impact labour force capacity in the sector, and supports the career searches of job seekers wanting to work in the industry. BuildForce also leads programs and initiatives that support workforce upskilling, workforce productivity improvements, improvements to training modalities, human resource tools to support the adoption of industry best practices, as well as other value-added initiatives focused on supporting the industry’s labour force development needs. Visit www.buildforce.ca.
For further information, contact James Raiswell, Director of Communications, BuildForce Canada, at raiswell@buildforce.ca or 343-998-1674.
This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:
Terry Parker
Executive Director
Building Trades of Alberta
780-405-3777
Paul de Jong
President
Progressive Contractors Association of Canada
403-620-3781
Dennis Perrin
Prairies Director
CLAC
587-785-1836
Warren Singh
Executive Director
Alberta Construction Association
587-785-1222
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